Artist · Writer · Technologist
Silver Thesis · Key Milestones
| Metric | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26† | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FX & Rates | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rate Fragility Index (0‑1)↑ higher = more systemic stress · warn ≥0.30 · alarm ≥0.55 · bear-steepener bonus activates when 30Y >5% & spread >100bps | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.47 | |
| USD/JPY↓ lower = silver +ve | 154.7 | 151.8 | 150.3 | 143.7 | 144.8 | 145.7 | 148.2 | 146.4 | 143.9 | 152.6 | 156.3 | 156.4 | 153.2 | 154.3 | 150.5 | 148.2 | 152.8 | 160.2 | 157.4 | ~157 | ~160 | |
| JGB 10Y (%)↑ rising = carry unwind | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.52 | 1.63 | 1.72 | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.56 | 1.75 | 1.92 | 2.08 | 2.30 | 2.48 | 2.62 | 2.74 | 2.82 | ~2.90 | ~3.00 | |
| UST 30Y (%)↓ lower = silver +ve; ↑ = long-end fiscal stress | ~4.82 | ~4.59 | ~4.63 | ~4.58 | ~4.82 | ~4.72 | ~4.76 | ~4.42 | ~4.44 | ~4.64 | ~4.56 | ~4.77 | ~4.97 | ~4.78 | ~4.78 | ~4.72 | ~4.98 | ~5.04 | ~5.18 | 5.24 | ~5.27 | |
| UST 10Y (%)↓ lower = silver +ve | 4.53 | 4.24 | 4.21 | 4.17 | 4.40 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.06 | 4.06 | 4.28 | 4.18 | 4.36 | 4.58 | 4.42 | 4.36 | 4.28 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 4.75 | ~4.70 | ~4.85 | |
| UST 3Y (%)↓ lower = silver +ve | 4.27 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 3.92 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 4.01 | 3.85 | 3.86 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.11 | 4.35 | 4.22 | 3.86 | 4.00 | 4.12 | 4.18 | 4.32 | ~4.30 | ~4.45 | |
| Silver | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver COMEX ($/oz)↑ higher = bull thesis | 31.3 | 31.1 | 34.4 | 32.0 | 32.8 | 36.5 | 39.2 | 41.7 | 41.7 | ~47.0 | ~60.0 | ~79.0 | ~94.0 | ~83.0 | ~75.0 | ~75.0 | ~68.0 | ~61.0 | ~58.5 | ~70 | ~67 | |
| Silver Shanghai ($/oz)↑ premium = physical tightness | ~33.0 | ~32.8 | ~36.3 | ~33.8 | ~34.6 | ~38.5 | ~41.3 | ~43.9 | ~43.9 | ~49.5 | ~63.2 | ~83.3 | ~99.2 | ~87.5 | ~79.1 | ~79.1 | ~71.8 | ~64.4 | ~61.7 | ~73.5 | ~70.5 | |
| Gold | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold COMEX ($/oz)↑ higher = monetary stress | 2,835 | 2,900 | 3,100 | 3,280 | 3,320 | 3,260 | 3,300 | 3,440 | 3,620 | 4,200 | 4,531 | 3,920 | 4,900 | 4,620 | 4,280 | 4,100 | 4,150 | 4,066 | 4,033 | ~4,650 | ~4,700 | |
| Gold Shanghai ($/oz)↑ higher = monetary stress | 2,892 | 2,958 | 3,162 | 3,346 | 3,386 | 3,325 | 3,366 | 3,509 | 3,692 | 4,284 | 4,622 | 3,998 | 4,998 | 4,712 | 4,366 | 4,182 | 4,233 | 4,147 | 4,114 | ~4,743 | ~4,794 | |
| Premiums & Market Stress | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver net premium (%)↑ above 0% = demand above VAT floor | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~3% | ~5% | ~10% | ~5% | ~5% | ~5% | ~5% | ~5% | ~5% | ~5% | ~0% | ~0% | |
| Silver backwardation↑ present = near-term physical scarcity | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | mild | mild | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes | mild | mild | mild | mild | |
| Gold net premium (%)↑ above 0% = China physical demand above logistics floor | ~1% | ~1% | ~1% | ~1% | ~1% | ~0% | ~0% | ~1% | ~1% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~2% | ~1% | ~1% | ~0% | ~0% | ~0% | ~0% | |
| Gold backwardation↑ present = physical demand floor forming | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | mild | mild | mild | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Inventories | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COMEX Registered (moz)↓ lower = supply squeeze | ~73 | ~82 | ~95 | ~105 | ~118 | ~130 | ~142 | ~150 | ~158 | 168 | ~148 | 128 | ~103 | ~85 | ~77 | 77 | ~79 | ~82 | ~96 | ~100 | 101 | |
| SHFE Silver (moz)↓ lower = supply squeeze | 80.0 | 72.0 | 65.0 | 58.0 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 36.0 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 28.8 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 28.0 | 27.9 | 27.7 | 27.9 | 27.8 | ~27.5 | ~27.0 | |
| Macro & Monetary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| WTI Crude ($/bbl)↑ higher = India forex pressure → duty hike risk | ~74 | ~71 | ~69 | ~61 | ~61 | ~65 | ~65 | 65 | ~68 | 61 | 60 | 58 | 60 | 64 | ~90 | ~100 | ~88 | ~82 | ~75 | ~85 | ~88 | |
| DXY (USD Index)↓ lower = silver +ve (weaker dollar) | ~108 | ~107 | ~104 | ~100 | ~99 | ~97 | ~98 | ~101 | ~100 | ~104 | ~107 | ~108 | ~97 | ~100 | ~103 | ~99 | ~98 | ~100 | ~100 | 101 | ~103 | |
| US 10Y Real (TIPS %)↓ lower / negative = silver monetary premium ↑ | ~2.10 | ~2.00 | ~2.00 | ~2.20 | ~2.00 | ~1.90 | ~2.00 | ~1.75 | ~1.75 | ~1.80 | ~1.90 | ~2.05 | ~2.10 | ~2.00 | 2.06 | ~1.96 | ~1.95 | ~1.90 | ~2.10 | ~2.10 | ~2.20 | |
| US M2 ($tn)↑ higher = more liquidity → monetary premium for silver | ~21.4 | ~21.5 | ~21.5 | ~21.6 | ~21.6 | ~21.7 | ~21.7 | ~21.8 | ~21.9 | 22.21 | ~22.3 | 22.41 | 22.44 | 22.67 | ~22.7 | ~22.8 | ~22.9 | 23.16 | ~23.2 | ~23.3 | ~23.3 | |
| Derived Signals | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold / Silver ratio↓ lower = silver outperforming → thesis compressing | ~90 | ~93 | ~91 | ~107 | ~103 | ~89 | ~84 | ~82 | ~87 | ~89 | ~75 | ~50 | ~52 | ~56 | ~57 | ~55 | ~61 | ~67 | ~69 | ~66 | ~66 | |
| India | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| USD/INR↑ higher (weaker rupee) = more duty pressure on imports | ~86.6 | ~87.0 | ~86.5 | ~83.5 | ~84.0 | ~84.5 | ~84.0 | ~84.1 | ~84.0 | ~84.1 | ~84.4 | ~84.7 | ~86.5 | ~87.0 | ~87.5 | ~85.0 | ~90.0 | ~95.0 | ~92.0 | ~91 | ~93 | |
| India FX Reserves ($bn)↓ lower = duty hike / import curb pressure | 626 | ~638 | ~655 | ~648 | ~655 | ~658 | 698 | ~673 | ~705 | ~672 | ~657 | 640 | 701 | ~635 | ~620 | ~590 | ~560 | ~668 | 693 | ~693 | ~703 | |
| MCX Silver (₹000/kg)↑ higher = domestic premium / SILVERCASE +ve | ~94 | ~95 | ~104 | ~94 | ~97 | ~109 | ~115 | ~123 | ~123 | ~138 | ~177 | ~233 | ~285 | ~252 | ~229 | ~222 | ~234 | ~221 | ~204 | ~242 | ~225 | |
| Private Credit Stress — Early Warning Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| BDC sector Price/NAV (x)↓ below 0.85x = stress; below 0.80x = alarm | ~0.97 | ~0.95 | ~0.93 | ~0.90 | ~0.93 | ~0.93 | ~0.87 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.81 | ~0.82 | ~0.83 | ~0.83 | |
| LSTA distress ratio (% loans <80¢)↑ above 5% = warning; above 7% = alarm | ~3.5 | ~3.2 | ~3.0 | ~5.0 | 3.23 | ~3.0 | 2.83 | ~2.7 | 2.59 | ~3.0 | ~3.5 | 4.34 | ~5.0 | ~5.5 | 7.23 | 6.83 | 6.53 | 6.87 | ~6.5 | ~6.2 | ~6.0 | |
| HY OAS — ICE BofA (bps)↑ above 400bps = warning; above 600bps = alarm | 259 | ~270 | ~280 | 461 | ~350 | ~310 | ~290 | ~280 | ~270 | ~275 | ~280 | 275 | ~280 | ~290 | ~330 | ~310 | ~300 | ~285 | 281 | 271 | ~285 | |
| Private-credit non-accruals (% of portfolio at cost)↑ above 2% = warning; above 3% = alarm | ~1.2 | ~1.2 | ~1.3 | ~1.4 | ~1.4 | ~1.5 | ~1.6 | ~1.7 | ~1.8 | ~1.9 | ~2.1 | ~2.2 | ~2.3 | ~2.5 | ~2.7 | ~2.9 | ~3.1 | ~3.2 | ~3.3 | ~3.4 | ~3.5 | |
| Leveraged-loan default rate (%, trailing 12M)↑ above 3% = warning; above 5% = alarm. Fitch: 6% reported, ~65% via quiet restructuring | ~2.5 | ~2.6 | ~2.8 | ~3.0 | ~3.2 | ~3.3 | ~3.4 | ~3.5 | ~3.6 | ~3.8 | ~4.0 | ~4.2 | ~4.4 | ~4.6 | ~4.9 | ~5.2 | ~5.5 | ~5.8 | ~5.9 | ~6.0 | ~6.0 | |
| HY distress ratio (% bonds trading >1000bps OAS)↑ above 8% = warning; above 12% = alarm | ~3.5 | ~3.2 | ~3.4 | ~8.5 | ~6.0 | ~5.2 | ~4.8 | ~4.5 | ~4.2 | ~4.0 | ~4.1 | ~4.0 | ~4.2 | ~4.5 | ~5.8 | ~6.2 | ~5.9 | ~5.7 | ~5.4 | ~5.2 | ~5.3 | |
| Avg leveraged loan bid (cents on $)↓ below 96¢ = warning; below 93¢ = alarm | ~98.5 | ~98.2 | ~97.8 | ~96.5 | ~97.2 | ~97.5 | ~97.8 | ~98.0 | ~98.2 | ~97.8 | ~97.5 | ~97.2 | ~97.0 | ~96.8 | ~96.2 | ~95.8 | ~96.0 | ~96.2 | ~96.4 | ~96.5 | ~96.5 | |
| CLO equity trailing 12M return (%)↓ below 5% = warning; below 0% = alarm | ~10 | ~9 | ~8 | ~6 | ~7 | ~8 | ~8 | ~8 | ~7 | ~7 | ~6 | ~6 | ~5 | ~5 | ~4 | ~3 | ~4 | ~4 | ~4 | ~5 | ~5 | |
| Lev-loan refinancing volumes ($bn, monthly)↓ below $20B = warning; below $10B = alarm. Collapse signals refi wall stress | ~35 | ~42 | ~38 | ~18 | ~32 | ~45 | ~48 | ~40 | ~35 | ~38 | ~30 | ~25 | ~28 | ~32 | ~25 | ~20 | ~22 | ~28 | ~30 | ~32 | ~28 | |
| PIK toggle + amend-and-extend ($bn, monthly est.)↑ above $5B = warning; above $8B = alarm. Rising A&E = deferred distress | ~3 | ~3 | ~4 | ~5 | ~5 | ~6 | ~6 | ~7 | ~7 | ~8 | ~8 | ~9 | ~9 | ~10 | ~11 | ~12 | ~13 | ~13 | ~14 | ~15 | ~15 | |
| Metric | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Structure | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Bill share — % of marketable debt↑ above 25% = watch · above 28% = warn | ~25.8 | ~25.5 | ~25.8 | ~26.0 | ~26.2 | ~26.5 | ~26.8 | ~27.0 | ~26.8 | ~27.0 | ~27.2 | ~27.5 | ~27.8 | ~27.5 | ~27.0 | ~27.2 | ~27.8 | ~27.6 | ~27.4 | ~27.5 | ~27.6 |
| Debt maturing ≤12M ($T)↑ above $8.5T = watch · above $9.5T = warn | ~8.2 | ~8.3 | ~8.4 | ~8.4 | ~8.5 | ~8.6 | ~8.7 | ~8.7 | ~8.8 | ~8.9 | ~9.0 | ~9.1 | ~9.1 | ~9.1 | ~9.2 | ~9.3 | ~9.3 | ~9.4 | ~9.4 | ~9.5 | ~9.5 |
| Weighted-average maturity (yrs)↓ below 6.0yr = watch · below 5.5yr = warn | ~6.0 | ~6.0 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.9 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 |
| Funding Pressure | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Net bill issuance ($bn, monthly)↑ above $150B sustained = watch · above $250B = warn | +180 | +82 | +118 | +94 | +198 | +162 | +140 | +108 | +132 | +168 | +191 | +218 | +152 | +128 | +102 | +138 | +172 | +160 | +148 | +192 | +145 |
| 3M T-bill vs SOFR (bps)↑ above 15bps = watch · above 30bps = warn | ~12 | ~10 | ~10 | ~11 | ~12 | ~13 | ~13 | ~14 | ~13 | ~14 | ~15 | ~16 | ~16 | ~17 | ~16 | ~17 | ~18 | ~17 | ~16 | ~17 | ~17 |
| Auction Stress — 10-Year | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 10Y bid-to-cover (x)↓ below 2.40x = watch · below 2.20x = warn | ~2.55 | ~2.52 | ~2.48 | ~2.53 | ~2.51 | ~2.57 | ~2.54 | ~2.58 | ~2.52 | ~2.50 | ~2.49 | ~2.51 | ~2.52 | ~2.54 | ~2.50 | ~2.55 | ~2.51 | ~2.49 | ~2.47 | ~2.53 | ~2.53 |
| 10Y tail (bps, +ve = weak demand)↑ above +1.5bps = watch · above +3.0bps = warn | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Auction Stress — 30-Year | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 30Y bid-to-cover (x)↓ below 2.40x = watch · below 2.20x = warn | ~2.45 | ~2.42 | ~2.38 | ~2.44 | ~2.40 | ~2.48 | ~2.46 | ~2.52 | ~2.44 | ~2.41 | ~2.39 | ~2.43 | ~2.47 | ~2.45 | ~2.42 | ~2.48 | ~2.43 | ~2.40 | ~2.37 | ~2.41 | 2.39 |
| 30Y tail (bps, +ve = weak demand)↑ above +1.0bps = watch · above +2.0bps = warn | +0.8 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 | +1.3 | +1.4 | +1.5 |
| 30Y primary dealer absorption (%)↑ above 12% = watch · above 15% = warn | ~9.5 | ~10.2 | ~10.8 | ~9.8 | ~10.5 | ~9.7 | ~10.1 | ~9.4 | ~10.3 | ~10.6 | ~11.0 | ~10.4 | ~10.5 | ~10.2 | ~10.8 | ~10.4 | ~11.0 | ~10.9 | ~11.2 | ~11.5 | 11.5 |
| Fiscal Consequence | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Net interest / federal revenue (%, trailing 12M)↑ above 15% = watch · above 18% = warn | ~15.2 | ~15.4 | ~15.6 | ~15.8 | ~16.0 | ~16.2 | ~16.4 | ~16.6 | ~16.8 | ~17.0 | ~17.2 | ~17.4 | ~17.6 | ~17.8 | ~17.9 | ~18.1 | ~18.3 | ~18.4 | ~18.5 | ~18.6 | 18.6 |
The Reserve Bank of India's "Lending Against Gold and Silver Collateral Directions, 2025" formally allows commercial banks, regional rural banks, co-operative banks, and NBFCs to accept silver jewellery, ornaments, and coins as collateral for loans. Before this, silver had no place in India's formal secured lending system. The policy gives silver the same legal standing as gold in the lending market for the first time in India's banking history.
Silver bullion (bars, bricks, ingots), silver-backed ETFs and mutual fund units, and digital silver are all ineligible as collateral. Lenders may not re-pledge or re-lend against silver already pledged to them. Loans cannot be used to purchase gold or silver or invest in silver-backed financial instruments.
The policy does not directly drive silver purchases. Its demand effect is indirect and structural. Indian households hold vast undocumented silver reserves — estimates range widely but the policy unlocks an estimated ₹1.5 lakh crore in dormant household silver into the formal credit system. Households that can borrow against silver have reduced incentive to sell at distressed prices, which supports the price floor. The policy also creates formal valuation infrastructure (purity testing, IBJA pricing) that accelerates the institutional recognition of silver as a monetary asset. The symbolic 10:1 collateral limit (10 kg silver vs 1 kg gold) embeds a gold-silver ratio acknowledgement into Indian banking regulation.
As of August 2026, lender rollout is underway. Major banks and NBFCs have had the April 2026 deadline to comply. No public quarterly data on silver loan book volumes has been published yet — it is too early for RBI aggregate data to reflect the product. The supply chain for purity testing and vault storage for silver (which is bulkier and lower-value-density than gold) is still being built by mid-tier and rural lenders.
The ALMM is MNRE's mandatory quality and domestic content gatekeeper for solar equipment used in government-linked Indian solar projects, including all central and state government tenders, PM Suryaghar subsidies, and SECI and DISCOM procurement. Only equipment on the ALMM can be used in these projects. The framework was introduced in 2019 with List I for solar modules. It is being extended in layers to cover deeper parts of the supply chain.
List II was originally planned for April 2026, then delayed to June 1 2026 to allow cell manufacturers more time to build domestic capacity. MNRE confirmed in May 2026 it would grant no further blanket extensions. As of June 1 2026, all ALMM List I modules used in mandatory projects must use cells from ALMM List II manufacturers. In July 2026, MNRE granted a limited transition window to December 31 2026 for net-metering and open access projects specifically, to protect investments already committed before the June deadline.
India's domestic cell manufacturers enrolled in List II predominantly produce PERC cells, with Reliance Industries adding HJT capacity (enrolled April 2026, 7th revision). Both PERC and HJT cell types consume significantly more silver per watt than China's frontier TOPCon cells, which use copper metallisation or other reduced-silver pastes. By mandating that government-linked projects source from Indian domestic cell makers, ALMM effectively locks in a higher silver-per-watt intensity for a large portion of India's solar additions. List III (wafers and ingots, 2028) will extend this further, as India's domestic wafer capacity will similarly be built on older-generation technology. The capacity mismatch — 30.3 GW cells vs 193 GW modules — also creates near-term supply pressure on domestic cell makers, which may further delay projects from switching to lower-silver alternatives.
India levies customs duty on silver imports, set by the Union Budget or by executive notification. The rate has oscillated repeatedly as a macroeconomic policy lever, primarily to manage the current account deficit and rupee pressure. Because India imports essentially all of its silver requirements, the import duty directly determines the landed cost for jewellers, industrial users, and investors, and strongly influences the domestic premium over international prices.
Historical precedent is clear. When duty was raised to 15% in 2022, unofficial imports surged. When duty was cut to 6% in July 2024, smuggling declined sharply. The current 15% rate creates a ~$9–10/oz arbitrage at current prices ($64 COMEX). The WGC estimates that between 2013 and 2026, increases in import duty were mostly followed by higher unofficial inflows, while duty reductions coincided with sharp declines. Industry bodies have warned the grey market will expand materially. This is both a risk (official demand suppressed) and a thesis-relevant observation (physical metal is still reaching India, just not through official channels, so global supply remains tighter than official data suggests).
The duty hike is a double-edged driver. In the near term it suppresses official Indian demand and reduces the bullish demand narrative. Over the medium term it sustains the domestic premium, benefits SILVERCASE (which reflects MCX domestic pricing inclusive of duty), and contributes to global silver remaining tighter than it would be with free Indian import flows. A future duty cut — likely when the West Asia crisis eases and forex pressure reduces — would be a sharp bullish catalyst for global silver prices as Indian demand returns officially at scale.
| Country / Entity | Total (t) | Q1 '24 | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (NBP) | 632t | — |
+19t |
~+35t |
~+36t |
+49t+36% |
~+9t−82% |
~+9t0% |
+35t+289% |
+31t−11% |
+51t+65% |
| China (PBOC) | 2,346t | ~+30t |
+2t−93% |
—paused |
~+3tresumed |
+13t+333% |
~+5t−62% |
~+6t+20% |
+3t−50% |
+7t+133% |
+33t+371% |
| India (RBI) | ~881t | +19t |
+18t−5% |
+13t−28% |
~+25t+92% |
+3t−88% |
~+6t+100% |
~+6t0% |
~+5t−17% |
~+5t0% |
~+8t+60% |
| Turkey | ~595t | ~+15t |
~+15t0% |
+10t−33% |
~+10t0% |
~+10t0% |
~+7t−30% |
+2t−71% |
~+8t+300% |
~−35tseller |
−4tseller |
| Kazakhstan | ~355t | +16t |
−12tseller |
−13tseller |
~+20tresumed |
+6t−70% |
~+16t+167% |
+18t+13% |
~+12t−33% |
+12t0% |
+15t+25% |
| Uzbekistan (SOFAZ) | ~416t | −14tseller |
~+5tresumed |
~−4tsold |
~+10t |
~+12t+20% |
~+14t+17% |
~+12t−14% |
+29t+142% |
+25t−14% |
+16t−36% |
| Czech Republic | ~77t | ~+3t |
~+3t0% |
~+2t−33% |
~+3t+50% |
+5t+67% |
~+5t0% |
~+4t−20% |
~+6t+50% |
~+3t−50% |
+6t+100% |
| Russia (CBR) | ~2,305t | — |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
~+2t |
~+5t+150% |
~−15tseller |
−22tseller |
| Brazil (BCB) | ~172t | — |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
+15tre-entered |
+28t+87% |
~— |
~— |
| Singapore (MAS) | ~194t | +2t |
— |
— |
— |
~+2t |
— |
— |
— |
— |
+4treturned |
| United States (Fed) | 8,133.5t | 8,133.5t |
no change |
no change |
no change |
no change |
no change |
no change |
no change |
no change |
no change |
| Global net (WGC est.) | flow only | ~+290t |
+183t−37% |
~+229t+25% |
+333t+45% |
+186t−44% |
+166t−11% |
+220t+33% |
+229t+4% |
+244t+7% |
+289t+18% |
| Country | Q1 '24 | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IndiaGross imports — world's largest silver consumer | 3,550t |
~1,700t−52% |
~1,090t−36% |
~1,330t+22% |
~415t−69% |
~940t+126% |
~1,880t+100% |
~2,100t+12% |
~1,350t−36% |
~550t−59% |
| ChinaNet position (imports minus refined silver exports) | ~−1,025t |
~−980t+4% |
~−1,060t−8% |
~−1,030t+3% |
~−1,100t−7% |
~−1,100t0% |
~−1,100t0% |
~−800t+27% |
+1,626tFLIP |
~+300t−82% |
| United StatesNet imports (strategic designation 2024, no reserve build) | ~+80t |
~+80t |
~+80t |
~+320ttariff |
~+500ttariff |
~+200t−60% |
~+150t−25% |
~+150t0% |
~+100t |
~+100t |
| Germany / Europe (industrial)Net silver imports — industrial and photovoltaic use | ~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
~+200t |
| Metric | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Silver (CME Group) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| COMEX Registered (moz)↓ lower = supply squeeze; warn <100 moz; alarm <80 moz | ~73 | ~82 | ~95 | ~105 | ~118 | ~130 | ~142 | ~150 | ~158 | 168 | ~148 | 128 | ~103 | ~85 | ~77 | 77 | ~79 | ~82 | ~96 | ~100 | 101 |
| COMEX Eligible (moz)Context: eligible metal can become registered quickly if owners choose to warrant it | ~220 | ~225 | ~230 | ~235 | ~240 | ~242 | ~248 | ~252 | ~255 | ~258 | ~260 | ~265 | ~268 | ~270 | ~272 | ~275 | ~278 | ~280 | ~282 | ~285 | ~288 |
| Registered / Eligible ratio↓ falling = less metal in delivery-ready state; warn <0.40x | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Reg / Open-Interest coverage (x)↓ warn <0.25x; alarm <0.15x — measures deliverable supply vs potential demand | ~0.28 | ~0.31 | ~0.35 | ~0.38 | ~0.42 | ~0.46 | ~0.50 | ~0.52 | ~0.54 | ~0.57 | ~0.50 | ~0.43 | ~0.35 | ~0.29 | ~0.26 | ~0.26 | ~0.27 | ~0.28 | ~0.32 | ~0.33 | ~0.19 |
| LBMA & Shanghai | |||||||||||||||||||||
| LBMA vault holdings (moz)Trough Feb 2025 (722 moz) → rebuilt to 907 moz Jul 2026. Rising = metal returning to London after squeeze. Includes ETF custodian, allocated, unallocated; encumbered metal not distinguished. | ~740 | 722 | ~740 | ~758 | ~793 | ~793 | 778 | ~784 | ~790 | ~844 | 874 | ~880 | ~883 | ~882 | ~885 | ~886 | 888 | 903 | 907 | ~— | ~— |
| SHFE deliverable silver (moz)↓ critically low; warn <35 moz; alarm <28 moz. Sustained backwardation in 2026 | 80.0 | 72.0 | 65.0 | 58.0 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 36.0 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 28.8 | 28.4 | 28.1 | 28.0 | 27.9 | 27.7 | 27.9 | 27.8 | ~27.5 | ~27.0 |
| Metric | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M silver lease rate (%)↑ above 1.5% = watch; above 3% = alarm. Confirmed: Feb 25 = 6.5%, Oct 25 spike to 39%, Jan 26 = ~8%, Jul 26 = 7.3% | ~2.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.8 | ~2.5 | ~2.0 | ~2.0 | ~2.5 | ~2.5 | ~11 | ~9 | ~8 | ~8 | ~7.5 | ~7.5 | ~7.5 | ~7.5 | ~7.3 | 7.3 | ~7.5 | ~7.5 |
| 3M silver lease rate (%)↑ above 1.5% = watch; above 3% = alarm. Estimated as 1M minus ~0.5–1.5% in normal conditions; spread narrows during squeezes | ~1.8 | ~5.0 | ~4.5 | ~3.0 | ~2.0 | ~1.5 | ~1.5 | ~2.0 | ~2.0 | ~8.0 | ~7.0 | ~6.5 | ~6.5 | ~6.0 | ~6.0 | ~6.0 | ~6.0 | ~5.8 | ~5.8 | ~6.0 | ~6.0 |
| Spot–3M structure (¢/oz, +ve = contango, −ve = backwardation)↓ sustained backwardation from Oct 2025; "record backwardation" in mid-2026 (multiple sources) | +8 | +5 | +6 | +4 | +5 | +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | −8 | −12 | −15 | −18 | −20 | −22 | −20 | −18 | −15 | −15 | −12 | −12 |
| EFP — COMEX minus LBMA spot (¢/oz, −ve = London at premium)↓ negative = physical squeeze: London silver commands premium over COMEX. Confirmed peak: London +$1.55 above COMEX (late 2025) | +10 | −30 | −20 | −5 | +5 | +8 | +6 | +4 | −2 | −60 | −155 | −80 | −45 | −35 | −20 | −15 | −10 | −8 | −10 | −12 | −12 |
| Metric (Moz) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | ||||||
| Industrial fabrication — total | 508 | 556 | 577 | 632 | ~680 | ~710 |
| of which: Solar PV | 105 | 140 | 161 | 198 | ~265 | ~310 |
| of which: Electronics & electrical | 255 | 260 | 265 | 268 | ~272 | ~275 |
| of which: Brazing & other industrial | 148 | 156 | 151 | 132 | ~123 | ~125 |
| Jewellery & silverware | 282 | 291 | 302 | 308 | ~312 | ~318 |
| Photography | 24 | 21 | 18 | 16 | ~14 | ~12 |
| Physical bar & coin investment | 278 | 332 | 244 | 194 | ~205 | ~230 |
| ETF net demand / (supply) | +74 | −110 | −56 | +28 | ~+15 | ~+80 |
| Total demand | 1,166 | 1,090 | 1,085 | 1,178 | ~1,225 | ~1,350 |
| Supply | ||||||
| Mine production | 829 | 843 | 831 | 837 | ~840 | ~845 |
| Mexico | 194 | 199 | 196 | 192 | ~188 | ~185 |
| China | 110 | 112 | 115 | 118 | ~120 | ~122 |
| Peru | 109 | 111 | 109 | 112 | ~114 | ~115 |
| Chile + Bolivia + Poland + other | 416 | 421 | 411 | 415 | ~418 | ~423 |
| Recycled silver | 173 | 180 | 178 | 186 | ~195 | ~205 |
| Net government & producer hedging | −16 | +13 | +14 | +15 | ~+10 | ~+5 |
| Total supply | 986 | 1,036 | 1,023 | 1,038 | ~1,045 | ~1,055 |
| Market balance (surplus / deficit) | −180 | −54 | −62 | −140 | ~−180 | ~−295 |
| Cumulative deficit milestones | −436 Moz (2021–2024) | ~−616 Moz through 2025E · ~−911 Moz through 2026E | ||||
| Metric | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COT managed money net long (k contracts)↑ above 45k = crowded / liquidation risk; below 5k = capitulation / buy signal. Confirmed: Jul 25 = 44,987; Sep 25 = 34,921; Dec 25 = 14,008; Feb 26 = 4,569 (capitulation while silver at ATH — physical drove the rally, not specs); Aug 26 = 14,073 | ~22 | ~28 | ~35 | ~20 | ~25 | ~32 | 45 | ~35 | 35 | ~38 | ~25 | 14 | ~8 | 4.6 | ~10 | ~15 | ~20 | ~18 | ~16 | 14 | ~14 |
| COMEX silver open interest (k contracts)Context: rising OI with rising price = new longs; rising OI with falling price = new shorts | ~130 | ~138 | ~148 | ~125 | ~132 | ~140 | ~148 | ~155 | ~158 | ~162 | ~158 | ~150 | ~145 | ~140 | ~132 | ~128 | ~132 | ~135 | ~140 | ~145 | ~148 |
| Total silver ETF holdings (Moz) — SLV + PSLV↑ rising = investment demand returning; ↓ persistent outflows = investor liquidation. Range: ~620 Moz (early 2025 trough) to ~730 Moz (Jan 2026 rally peak) | ~625 | ~620 | ~622 | ~615 | ~618 | ~625 | ~638 | ~642 | ~648 | ~660 | ~672 | ~690 | ~725 | ~730 | ~718 | ~705 | ~695 | ~688 | ~682 | ~676 | ~673 |
| PSLV premium / (discount) to NAV (%)↑ positive premium = retail physically-backed demand outpacing supply of units; watch if >5% | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +1.8 | +2.1 | +2.4 | +2.0 | +1.8 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Metric | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Mint silver coin sales (Moz)↑ retail investment demand; lags price — FOMO peaks after ATH. Warn ≥2 Moz/mo; alarm ≥4 Moz/mo | ~1.2 | ~1.0 | ~1.5 | ~1.0 | ~0.8 | ~0.9 | ~1.8 | ~2.0 | ~2.2 | ~2.8 | ~3.5 | ~4.0 | ~5.5 | ~4.5 | ~3.0 | ~2.5 | ~2.0 | ~1.8 | ~1.5 | ~1.5 | ~1.5 |
| SGE silver delivery withdrawals (Moz)↑ Chinese industrial + wholesale physical offtake direct from SGE vaults. Warn ≥12 Moz/mo; alarm ≥18 Moz/mo. CNY dip normal in Feb | ~8 | ~5 | ~10 | ~9 | ~8 | ~8 | ~10 | ~11 | ~12 | ~15 | ~18 | ~20 | ~22 | ~12 | ~18 | ~16 | ~14 | ~12 | ~11 | ~10 | ~10 |
| China silver imports HS-7106 (tonnes)↑ mainland net import pull; leads SGE premium by 4–8 weeks. Warn ≥500t/mo; alarm ≥700t/mo. CNY dip normal in Feb | ~350 | ~200 | ~450 | ~400 | ~380 | ~350 | ~420 | ~480 | ~520 | ~680 | ~820 | ~750 | ~850 | ~480 | ~680 | ~600 | ~520 | ~440 | ~400 | ~380 | ~360 |
| COMEX silver physical delivery (Moz)↑ longs standing for delivery vs rolling — measures US physical demand conviction. Active delivery months: Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. Warn ≥10 Moz; alarm ≥20 Moz in a single delivery month | ~2 | ~1 | ~8 | ~2 | ~10 | ~2 | ~15 | ~3 | ~18 | ~4 | ~5 | ~22 | ~5 | ~8 | ~30 | ~6 | ~25 | ~5 | ~20 | ~4 | ~18 |
| India total silver imports — DGCI&S HS-7106 (tonnes)↑ all channels: IIBX + banks + Star Trading Houses + direct industrial importers. Duty 6% Jan 25–12 May 26; 15% from 13 May 26. Warn ≥300t/mo; alarm ≥500t/mo. ~45–60 day publication lag | ~280 | ~200 | ~380 | ~350 | ~320 | ~340 | ~380 | ~420 | ~460 | ~540 | ~620 | ~580 | ~620 | ~640 | ~580 | ~540 | ~280 | ~150 | ~130 | ~125 | ~120 |
| of which: IIBX channel (exchange-routed, institutional)↑ growing share of total; was <10% of imports in Jan 25, now ~75%+ of a much-reduced total — duty hike transferred share to IIBX while crushing overall volume. Confirmed: Aug 26 = ~90t | ~22 | ~18 | ~28 | ~25 | ~24 | ~28 | ~32 | ~35 | ~38 | ~45 | ~50 | ~55 | ~62 | ~68 | ~72 | ~80 | ~85 | ~88 | ~90 | ~90 | ~90 |
| of which: non-IIBX channel (banks, direct industrial) = gap↓ collapse post-duty-hike signals banks stopped importing — not economical at 15% without premium support. A reversal toward 6% duty would reactivate this channel immediately (+500–800t surge per CLAUDE.md estimate) | ~258 | ~182 | ~352 | ~325 | ~296 | ~312 | ~348 | ~385 | ~422 | ~495 | ~570 | ~525 | ~558 | ~572 | ~508 | ~460 | ~195 | ~62 | ~40 | ~35 | ~30 |
| Metric | Reading direction | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ↓ lower = bullish silver | Lower USD/JPY means a stronger yen, which reverses the yen carry trade and pushes capital toward gold and silver as safe havens. |
| JGB 10Y (%) | ↑ rising = carry unwind risk | Rising Japanese bond yields make yen assets more attractive, tightening carry funding and potentially triggering broad de-risking. |
| UST 10Y (%) | ↓ lower = bullish silver | Lower US nominal yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. |
| UST 3Y (%) | ↓ lower = bullish silver | Tracks the near-term rate path more closely than the 10Y; useful for gauging Fed pivot expectations. |
| WTI Crude ($/bbl) | ↑ higher = India duty risk | Higher oil inflates India's import bill, pressures the rupee, drains forex reserves, and directly triggered the May 2026 silver import duty hike. Source: FRED/EIA monthly average. |
| DXY (USD Index) | ↓ lower = bullish silver | Silver is priced in dollars; a weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for non-dollar buyers, supporting demand. Also inversely correlated with monetary debasement narrative. |
| US 10Y Real (TIPS %) | ↓ lower / negative = bullish silver | The single most important monetary driver of precious metals. Negative real yields mean cash loses purchasing power, making silver a store of value. Source: Federal Reserve H.15 / Trading Economics. Mar 24 2026 = 2.06%, Apr 7 2026 = 1.96% confirmed. |
| Metric | Notes |
|---|---|
| Silver COMEX ($/oz) | Front-month COMEX futures close. Confirmed anchors: Jan'25 $31.28, Feb $31.13, Mar $34.43 (Benzinga/TradingView). Oct 1 2025 high $47.975 (Barchart). Dec 2025 ~$79 (year high $79.28 Dec 26). Jan 2026 ATH $121.67 (Jan 29), monthly avg ~$94. Jul 14 2026 $58.55 (GoldSilver.com). Aug 12-13 2026 $64.78–67.06 (Trading Economics/USAGold). |
| Silver Shanghai ($/oz) | SGE spot converted to USD at prevailing CNY/USD. Structural premium vs COMEX reflects 13% VAT. Net premium = observed spread minus the 13% VAT floor; values above 0% signal genuine excess demand beyond tax friction. |
| Gold COMEX / Shanghai ($/oz) | Same methodology as silver. Gold net premium baseline is ~0.3% (logistics only; gold is VAT-exempt on SGE). Gold backwardation signal is rarer and more significant than silver. |
| Signal | Definition |
|---|---|
| Silver net premium (%) | Observed SGE-COMEX spread minus the 13% VAT structural baseline. Values above 0% mean the market is paying above what VAT alone explains — a genuine physical demand signal. Currently ~0%, meaning no excess demand premium. |
| Silver backwardation | Near-term futures trading below spot. "yes" = confirmed inversion (>−15¢/oz spot–3M); "mild" = partial inversion (−1 to −15¢/oz); "—" = normal contango. Backwardation onset Oct 2025 (−8¢, mild); deepened to −22¢ (Mar 2026, strongest); sustained at −12¢ (Sep 2026, mild). Persistent now for 12 months — a historically unprecedented duration. Aligns with DS tab Spot–3M structure row. |
| Gold net premium / backwardation | Same methodology. Gold net premium baseline ~0.3%. Gold backwardation is rarer; confirmed mild Nov 2025–Jan 2026 only. |
| Metric | Notes |
|---|---|
| COMEX Registered (moz) | Deliverable (warranted) metal only — not total vaulted stocks. The relevant number for futures settlement pressure. Source: CME Group warehouse reports via The Vault Report / SchiffGold. Confirmed anchors: Oct 2025 peak 167.7 moz, Dec 2025 128.2 moz, Apr 2026 low 76.88 moz, Aug 5 2026 recovery ~99.79 moz. |
| SHFE Silver (moz) | Shanghai Futures Exchange silver warehouse stocks, converted from tonnes at 32.15 oz/kg. Declining trend from 80 moz (Jan 2025) to ~27.9 moz (current) reflects sustained Chinese industrial drawdown. |
| Metric | Notes |
|---|---|
| US M2 ($tn) | Federal Reserve M2 money supply, seasonally adjusted. Confirmed: Oct 2025 $22.21tn, Dec 2025 $22.41tn, Jan 2026 $22.44tn, Feb 2026 $22.67tn (ATH), Jun 2026 $23.16tn. Source: Trading Economics / FRED M2SL. |
| Gold / Silver ratio | COMEX gold price divided by COMEX silver price. Confirmed anchors: Dec 31 2024 = 90.3x, Apr 7 2025 tariff peak = 107.8x (Barchart), Oct 1 2025 = 82x, Nov 2025 = 80–83x (USAGOLD), Dec 2025 = ~50x (gold $3,920 / silver $79), Jan 2026 monthly avg = ~52x, Aug 2026 = ~69x. Exit signal for thesis: ratio compressing toward 40–45x. |
| Metric | Notes |
|---|---|
| USD/INR | Spot rate. A weaker rupee (higher number) increases the landed cost of silver imports, amplifying the effect of any global price move on domestic prices. The Hormuz oil shock drove the rupee to a record low of ~96 in Jun 2026 before recovering. INR weakness directly caused the May 2026 import duty hike. |
| India FX Reserves ($bn) | RBI total reserves (FCA + gold + SDR + IMF tranche). Confirmed: Jan 2025 $625.9bn, Jul 2025 $698.2bn, Sep 2025 ATH $704.9bn, Dec 2025 $640bn, Jan 2026 $701.4bn, Jul 31 2026 $692.9bn. Source: RBI Weekly Statistical Supplement. The May–Jun 2026 trough of ~$560–568bn directly preceded and caused the May 13 import duty hike. Jun 26 2026 = $667.9bn total (CEIC $542.6bn figure represents FCA component only). |
| MCX Silver (₹000/kg) | MCX front-month silver futures in ₹000 per kg. Calculated from COMEX price × 32.15 oz/kg × USD/INR × (1 + effective duty). Duty was 6% (BCD 5% + AIDC 1%) pre-May 13 2026; raised to 15% (BCD 10% + AIDC 5%) from May 13 2026 onward. Confirmed: Aug 12 2026 MCX Sep futures = ₹237,725/kg. Jan 2026 monthly avg ~₹285,000/kg (single-day ATH was ~₹366,000). |
| Metric | Thresholds | Notes & confirmed anchors |
|---|---|---|
| BDC sector Price/NAV (x) | Normal ~0.97–1.05x Warn <0.85x Alarm <0.80x |
MVIS US BDC Index P/B ratio. When BDC shares trade at large discounts to reported NAV, the market is pricing in losses not yet visible in quarterly filings. Confirmed: Feb 27 2026 = 0.83x (VanEck). Apr 2026 trough ~0.78x — widest since COVID. Sources: VanEck MVIS BDC Index, OHA, Mercer Capital, Octus, CovenantLite. |
| LSTA distress ratio (% loans <80¢) | Normal <3% Warn >5% Alarm >7% |
Share of Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index trading below 80 cents on the dollar. Confirmed monthly anchors: May 2025 = 3.23%, Jul 2025 = 2.83% (3-year low), Sep 2025 = 2.59% (cycle trough), Dec 2025 = 4.34%, Mar 2026 = 7.23% (highest since Dec 2022), Apr 2026 = 6.83%, May 2026 = 6.53%, Jun 2026 = 6.87%. ~45% of distressed debt is software-sector. Source: PitchBook LCD monthly default reports. |
| HY OAS — ICE BofA (bps) | Normal <350bps Warn >400bps Alarm >600bps |
ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2). Real-time public market view on speculative-grade credit risk — the same borrowers private credit lends to. Leads BDC non-accrual disclosures. Confirmed: Jan 2025 = 259bps (cycle low), Apr 2025 = 461bps (tariff shock — only alarm breach in this window), Dec 2025 = 275bps, Jul 27 2026 = 281bps, Aug 12 2026 = 271bps. Note: current HY OAS near cycle lows while LSTA distress ratio is elevated — this divergence signals private credit stress not yet priced into broad HY. Sources: govspending.org, Convex Trade (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2). |
| Private-credit non-accruals (% of portfolio at cost) | Normal <2% Warn >2% Alarm >3% |
Weighted-average non-accrual rate across publicly reporting BDCs (e.g., Ares Capital, Blue Owl, FS KKR, Golub) as disclosed in quarterly 10-Qs. Non-accruals lag actual credit impairment by 1–2 quarters due to manager discretion in classification. Rising non-accruals in consecutive quarters are the clearest leading indicator of broader private-credit defaults. Q3 2026 BDC filings (Oct–Nov 2026) will be the first public confirmation of the Q2→Q3 2026 acceleration. Sources: SEC EDGAR BDC 10-Q filings, Octus (formerly Reorg), PitchBook LCD. |
| Leveraged-loan default rate (%, trailing 12M) | Normal <2% Warn >3% Alarm >5% |
Trailing 12-month leveraged loan default rate by principal amount (Fitch Ratings monthly report). Includes Chapter 11, distressed exchanges, and missed payments. Fitch reported headline rate at ~6% as of mid-2026 with ~65% of 2025 defaults classified as quiet restructurings (distressed exchanges not visible in bankruptcy counts). The divergence between the official default rate and the proportion of quiet restructurings is itself a stress signal — it indicates managers are preferring non-disclosure to formal default. Sources: Fitch Ratings Leveraged Finance Default Monitor, PitchBook LCD. |
| HY distress ratio (% bonds trading >1000bps OAS) | Normal <5% Warn >8% Alarm >12% |
Share of ICE BofA US High Yield Index constituents trading at option-adjusted spreads above 1,000bps — the market definition of "distressed". Distinct from the LSTA distress ratio (loan-based) and HY OAS (index average); this metric captures the tail of severe stress even when the average OAS appears benign. The Apr 2025 tariff shock pushed it briefly to ~8.5%. The current divergence (LSTA distress elevated, HY distress ratio moderate) means private credit stress has not yet transmitted fully into liquid HY markets. Source: ICE BofA / Bloomberg. |
| Avg leveraged loan bid (cents on $) | Normal >98¢ Warn <96¢ Alarm <93¢ |
Average bid price of the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index (par-weighted). Falling bid prices signal that secondary-market participants are demanding higher yields to hold the same loans, often ahead of covenant violations or rating downgrades. A sustained move below 96¢ implies that many borrowers would face materially higher financing costs if they needed to refinance in the secondary market. The combination of falling bid prices + rising LSTA distress ratio + low refinancing volumes is the classic refi-wall stress signal. Sources: Morningstar LSTA, PitchBook LCD. |
| CLO equity trailing 12M return (%) | Normal >8% pa Warn <5% Alarm <0% |
Estimated cash-on-cash return to CLO equity tranches over the trailing 12 months (industry aggregates from Palmer Square, Guggenheim, Wells Fargo CLO research). CLO equity is the most leveraged exposure to leveraged loan credit quality; deterioration in CLO equity returns typically precedes CLO deal turnovers and forced selling in the loan market. Falling returns also suppress new CLO issuance, which is the primary demand driver for leveraged loans — a negative feedback loop. Current five-year CLO new issuance record cycle has created significant equity tranche overhang. Sources: Palmer Square CLO Research, Wells Fargo CLO Strategy. |
| Lev-loan refinancing volumes ($bn, monthly) | Normal >$30B Warn <$20B Alarm <$10B |
Monthly leveraged loan refinancing and repricing volumes (PitchBook LCD). Captures the ability of leveraged borrowers to roll maturing debt or reduce spread through repricing. A sustained collapse in refi volumes — whether due to lender risk aversion, rising base rates, or deteriorating credit quality — forces borrowers to rely on amend-and-extend or PIK mechanisms, or ultimately default. The Apr 2025 tariff shock caused a brief refi-market seize-up (~$18B) that partially reversed. The 2022-vintage maturity wall (peak Q4 2027) will become critical if refi volumes compress again in H1 2027. Source: PitchBook LCD, LSEG LPC. |
| PIK toggle + amend-and-extend ($bn, monthly est.) | Normal <$3B Warn >$5B Alarm >$8B |
Estimated monthly volume of new Payment-in-Kind interest elections and Amend & Extend (A&E) transactions in private credit and leveraged loans. PIK elections allow borrowers to defer cash interest payments by adding to principal — preserving liquidity but worsening leverage. A&E transactions push maturities out 1–2 years without formal default, a form of deferred distress. Both are invisible in headline default statistics and are the primary mechanism behind the "quiet restructuring" phenomenon Fitch identified. Rising A&E volumes signal that sponsors are burning time rather than equity, while lenders are prioritising NAV preservation over loss realisation. Sources: Octus (formerly Reorg), PitchBook LCD, Lincoln International BDC Monitor. |